INTERMEDIATE
How prediction markets use incentives and market microstructure to aggregate dispersed information — on-chain implementation, AMM vs order-book design, oracle resolution, manipulation vectors, and a deep case study of Polymarket.
Why markets outperform experts at aggregating dispersed knowledge, how prediction markets turn beliefs into prices, and how to measure forecast accuracy with calibration and Brier scores.
Smart contract architecture for prediction markets, the Conditional Tokens Framework, AMM vs CLOB trade-offs, and oracle design for decentralised resolution.
How Polymarket grew to $3B+ election volume — its Polygon deployment, CLOB order book, USDC settlement, market creation, liquidity model, and the lessons from its regulatory battles.
Wash trading, oracle attacks, resolution disputes, low-liquidity manipulation, ambiguous market specifications, and the real incidents that exposed each vulnerability.
Futarchy and governance markets, a cross-platform comparison of Augur, Polymarket, Manifold and Kalshi, and a capstone challenge to design a prediction market for a specific real-world domain.
